The Oscars Are Coming, The Oscars Are Coming!: My Annual Predictions You Can Bet $$$ On

Below are my annual Oscar predictions. But first, my annual Oscar defense. Are the Oscars stupid? Kind of. Even the hosts think so. Are they totally useless? Hardly. They amplify the voice of the little guy; how many people had heard of, or cared about Amour before it netted a Best Picture nomination? When they work as they should (they often don't), they give us an opportunity to recognize truly exceptional work. You look at Daniel Day-Lewis's work in Lincoln and think: This guy's earned more than just a paycheck. Finally, the Oscars are, like every other awards show or competition, a narrative. They're chock-full of interesting characters (An aging starlet without an award on her mantel! A crap actor turned ingenious director!), intriguing plotlines (The up-and-comer versus the old pro! The scrappy indie flick versus the establishment!), and moments of galvanizing emotion ("You like me! You really like me!" Did Adrien just kiss Halle?!). We watch the Oscars to reflect upon the films released in the previous year. We watch the Oscars in hopes that those whose work means a lot to us gets recognized. But mostly, we watch the Oscars for the same reason we watch damn near everything we watch on television; to sit in front of a screen and feel something.

One more thing. I'm proud to be the guy who was shouting "Jean Dujardin!" last year, when many prognosticators were crying "George Clooney!" I'm also mightily embarrassed that I called the 2010 Best Picture race for Avatar. A look at my previous posts reveals that I am, more often than not, right about this stuff; it also reveals that when I'm wrong, I'm dead wrong. So kick back, relax, and take my predictions with a sense of trust and a grain of salt.


                                                                 Best Picture:

What Will Win: I tend to roll my eyes at Roger Ebert's Oscar predictions. After all, this is the man who vehemently and repeatedly asserted that the True Grit remake would fill its metaphorical hands come Oscar night. Yeah. About that. However, a mea culpa is in order: through the entire Oscar season, the man has been calling the race in Argo's favor, and it's looking like a very good call indeed. It's a decent choice; the film is overlong and historically dodgy, but it's also the rare thriller that's done with a mastery approaching high art. As literary critic Stanley Fish has pointed out, it's basically a meat-and-potatoes caper picture with a dash of topicality thrown in, but the thing is staged with a breathless immediacy and dazzling ingenuity that renders such griping irrelevant while watching it. In other words, the film's saving grace is its direction. So, naturally, Oscar voters elected to overlook the director. The guilt and embarrassment incurred by the Ben Affleck snub all but guarantee this movie a Best Picture Oscar--and its topical urgency and self-congratulatory, just-look-what-movies-can-do message don't hurt either. I won't be upset if it wins, but I won't be doing some sort of embarrassing happy dance either.

What Should Win: Lincoln could've been sap-happy, timid, and overly reverent. Instead it was one of the gutsiest historical pictures of recent years, a genuinely ballsy attempt to marry a warts-and-all portrait of a secular deity with a broader examination of our nation's system of government. Some found it terribly treacly, others bland and blah as cardboard. I found it a deeply moving, at times galvanically powerful portrait of a man and the political machine he mastered, one that acknowledged both the tragic flaws and the imperfect beauty of its dual subjects.

What Just Might Win: Lincoln is not the front-runner it once was, but it's still a biography of our greatest living president, starring our greatest living actor and helmed by the world's most famous director. The pungent smell of Oscar bait might be a little too much to resist. Les Miserables once had a shot at this category, but the nasty backlash against Anne Hathaway (mostly undeserved) and director Tom Hooper (somewhat deserved) have killed the Best Picture dream it dreamed.

Best Actor:

Will and Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln. He's set to top Meryl Streep's victory tally, and deservedly so. I'm a Meryl groupie till the day I die, but no one, not even her, not even Brando, has ever approached the art of screen acting with anything near the emotional sensitivity and near-religious commitment that DDL has. By reviving and revitalizing one of history's greatest figures, he has done us all an immense service. Oscar voters will express their gratitude. So should we.

Who Just Might Win: If anyone has a snowflake's chance in hell of beating out DDL, it's Hugh Jackman. Anne Hathaway has become the face of Les Mis, but a great many people recognize that Jackman was its generous and genuine heart. Plus, I'd say a certain number of Academy members just flat-out cherish the rare opportunity to reward a male performer for his work in a serious screen musical. The question is: how many? The likely answer: probably too few.

Best Actress:

Will Win: Two of the big contenders in this category are Hollywood's two most prominent rising starlets, Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain. For both of them, clenching a victory would complete their transition from up-and-comer to full-on Big Name. Chastain's work in Zero Dark Thirty was a model of subtlety and steely reserve. But steely reserve doesn't win you an Oscar: emotion does, and J-Law's performance in Silver Linings Playbook was among the most nakedly emotional work done all year. It's not my favorite performance in the film, but it is a very, very good one, a bona fide star turn. The odds are ever so slightly in her favor.

Should Win: I'll raise my glass to a Lawrence win, but I'd really love it if the trophy went to Quevenzhane Wallis. She was a force of nature in Beasts of The Southern Wild, and hers is probably the best performance delivered by a child since Anna Paquin's Oscar-winning one in The Piano.

Just Might Win:  If you want to go cray-cray and bet on one long-shot upset this year, go for Emmanuel Riva in Amour. Last year, Christopher Plummer became the oldest person ever to win an acting Oscar. Riva would break Plummer's record. Plus, it's her birthday on Oscar night. Make of that what you will.

Best Supporting Actress:

Will and Should Win: Anne Hathaway. Not even a question. The surest thing since Heath Ledger won posthumously in 2008. The girl deserves it, too. Contrary to what some would have you believe, it's not the Best Performance Given In The History of Performing Evaaaaaar. But it's mightily impressive, for the same reason Jennifer Hudson's turn in Dreamgirls was mightily impressive; it injects fresh emotional energy into a song that's long been dangerously overplayed and ripe for mockery. It makes those lyrics and that melody mean something again. Anne hath a clear way to the stage come Oscar night.

Just Might Win: You're kidding, right?

Best Supporting Actor:

 

Will Win: In lieu of being productive or engaging in meaningful human contact, I've spent an enormous of time thinking about this category. I've come to two conclusions; firstly, it's the hardest race I've had to call since I started playing the Oscar punditry game. Secondly, I think  Tommy Lee Jones has about a .0000001% edge over three of his competitors (Christoph Waltz, Robert DeNiro, Phillip Seymour Hoffman), all of whom have a very good chance at winning. Only Alan Arkin is a real long shot. Jones hasn't hit up the interview circuit much, and he's known for being about as prickly as a cactus in a Texas desert. Still, his performance was the big, belligerent, showy kind that's absolutely made to win awards. It doesn't hurt that it's actually good, too, a perfectly calibrated marvel of sublime comedic timing and startling emotional depth. It's also worth mentioning  that Jones's penultimate scene is probably the most memorable moment in the entire picture, even moreso than that stuff involving the guy with the tall hat.

Just Might Win: It's been a long while since Robert DeNiro has given a really good performance in a really good movie. The Academy knows this. They also know he's aging, and fast. TLJ's still in front, but DeNiro's right on his heels.

Should Win: Both Jones's and DeNiro's performances resonated very deeply with this writer. I'd be pleased if either one of them won. I'd be duly delighted if the Academy pulled a Streisand-Hepburn and gave this award to both of them. Just think of it; two of the most greatest actors of their generation, sharing recognition for the best work they've done in my lifetime. Granted, that's only slightly more likely than a Herman Cain presidency, but hey, a movie lover can dream.

Best Director:

Disclaimer: Each year, three things are certain: I'll re-watch Casablanca at least twice, I'll get exactly two colds, and I'll get my Best Director prediction wrong. Seriously, I've been misreading the tea leaves in this category even since I started making Oscar ballots out of construction paper nine years ago. Trust me on this one at your own risk.

Will Win: This one comes down to two big contenders: Steven Spielberg, whose work on Lincoln was a thrilling return to form, and Ang Lee, the man behind the Herculean effort to shepherd Yann Martel's nigh-unfilmable novel Life Of Pi onto to the screen. Give the edge to Lee. Those who consider Life Of Pi an achievement know that it is first and foremost a directorial one--light on dialogue, free of showy acting, and almost entirely reliant on the vision of the man behind the camera.

Should Win: This wasn't a first rate year in Directorville. Peter Jackson, Quentin Tarantino, and, yes, even probable winner Ang Lee let me down. Among the few who didn't disappoint; Joss Whedon, who brought wit and humanity to the year's biggest popcorn extravaganza: Ben Affleck, whose protean command of the camera made a nuts-and-bolts thriller into something more: and Steven Spielberg, who reminded us what he's capable of when he tempers his knee-jerk inclination towards poetic grandeur with rationality and restraint. Of those three, only the Spielster is nominated, so I'll go with him.

Just Might Win: Spielberg has a fighting chance.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Will Win: Chris Terrio for Argo. I've accepted that it's the likely victor in this category, but I don't wanna talk about it....


Should Win: ...Because Tony Kushner's borderline brilliant work on Lincoln should be the undisputed champion here. Kushner's one of the few true-blue geniuses in American letters today. Whether he's writing for the stage or for the screen, his scripts are gigantically satisfying, defiantly deep, and occasionally maddening personal epics that radiate raw emotion even as they dazzle us with their hyper-articulate braininess. Lincoln is no exception; in the span of two glorious hours, it manages to resurrect and reinterpret one of the Deadest White Men in American history. The script's historical errors, while disappointing, don't hold a candle to Argo's, nor do they truly mar the stunning scope of Kushner's overall achievement; he's created a work of art that's jam-packed with ideas, throbbing with earnest emotion, and free of his own reactionary politics. Improbably enough, he also manages to turn one of the most famous legislative debates in American history into something of a thriller; as Roger Ebert puts it, he succeeds "in taking a story marinated in history and viewing it as something that could have gone either way". Did any other script in this category achieve such a lofty goal? Certainly not. Will Oscar take note? Not likely. Will I throw a temper tantrum if this one loses? Definitely.

Just Might Win: *taps ruby slippers* There's no script like Kushner's, there's no script like Kushner's....

Best Original Screenplay:

Will Win: Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained. After being overlooked for his exemplary work on Jackie Brown and Kill Bill, Vol. 2, and for his very good work on Inglourious Basterds, Tarantino will nab a trophy for a film that is structurally messy and at times morally repugnant. Don't get me started.


Should Win: Moonrise Kingdom was my favorite film of last year. This is its only shot at being recognized. It won't happen, but I'd very much like it to. I'd also love for Flight, perhaps last year's most overrated motion picture, to lose. Ahh, schadenfreude.

Just Might Win: It's not likely, but it's possible that Django's copious violence and liberal use of the n-word will somehow conspire to deny it a victory. In that case, Zero Dark Thirty will take the cake. However, the controversies surround that film's depiction of torture could possibly shut it out of an Oscar.

Quickie Reviews: Abbreviated Thoughts On The Best Picture Contenders

Les Miserables: Rough, flawed, often clunky. But also heartfelt, ambitious, and occasionally brilliant. Improves with multiple viewings. Definitely deserves its nomination. Didn't earn a win. A-.

Silver Linings Playbook:  Beautifully acted, tender-hearted look at the raw emotions that fray the fabric of a family, as well as the ones bind them inextricably together; in other words, a David O. Russell movie. Ending is a cop-out, and some of the characters are a touch underwritten. Russell's weakest film, but he's a good enough director that it's still the most lovable and honest comedy of 2012. A-.

Lincoln: Do I really need to say more about it? Loved it and will always love it, in spite of its myriad flaws. A.

Amour: Haven't seen it. Blame James Joyce and Business Statistics for that.

Beasts Of The Southern Wild: Saw it. Loved it. Put it on my Best of 2012 list hours after I finished watching it. Was bothered by it in the weeks afterward, and this article explains why better than I ever could. An affecting love letter to Louisiana, which is great; also, intentionally or not, a creepy pseudo-anarchist screed, which is not so great. A film surrounded by near-fatal flaws, but one with a must-see performance at the center, that of little Quavenzhane Wallis. Full disclosure; she had me bawling by the end. B. 

Argo: A extremely well-crafted, hugely enjoyable thriller. Nothing more, nothing less. A-.

Django Unchained: Lacks the cleverness of Inglourious Basterds, the zeitgeisty zing! of Pulp Fiction, and the heart of Kill Bill, Vol. 2 and Jackie Brown. Boasts crazy-good work from Leo DiCaprio and Samuel L. Jackson. Yet only Christoph Waltz gets nominated. Go figure. B-.

Life Of Pi-PG-ifies the book's darkness and irons over the complexity of its themes. Transfers the last section of the book to the screen with a dull thud. Transfers the famed tiger to the screen marvelously. A  better adaptation than expected, but far from the best one that could've been made. C+.

Zero Dark Thirty-Critics are saying it's better than the director's previous film, The Hurt Locker. Said critics are drunk. Still, a smart, often riveting look at the War on Terror that makes the bold and necessary decision to embrace ambiguity and uncertainty. A very good movie with a great, unforgettable last shot. B+.

Happy Oscar Day, folks!