3 Steps to Oscar Enlightenment

1. Prologue Remember when I used to have a "blog"? I believe I wrote things called "articles", often about this "art form" called "the cinema", but I'm involved in this thing called "musical theatre" which takes up a generous amount of "time". However, tonight seemed like a good time to re-enter the blogosphere, because, after all....ITS OSCAR DAY!!!!!!!!$$$$$$$$$$

Tonight, Anne Hathaway (the dictionary definition of class) and James Franco (sex on a stick) will kick off pop culture's answer to the Super Bowl. I expect a livelier, leaner affair this year, perhaps one that will equal 2008's brilliant retro retread, and definitely one that will surpass last year's bland-o-lakes concoction of sap and shtick. My one request of the producers is that, regardless of what they do with the montages and the speeches and the best song nominees and Sean Penn, they take full advantage of Hathaway and Franco's bound-to-be-crackling chemistry. You've got two textbook examples of ebullient star power sharing the world stage. Make it good.

But I digress; this is really about the movies, and this year, 'tis a pretty good crop of nominees. No true stinkers elbowed their way into big categories (whuddup, The Blind Side?), and even the less-than-deserving prestige pieces (True Grit, The Kids Are All Right), aren't anywhere near as mind-bogglingly overrated as, say, Crash, or The Hurt Locker, last year's hyperbolically machismo, appallingly exploitative Best Picture/Director/Screenplay winner (don't get me started). This year, all the major nominees deserved it, even if they didn't quite turn in work worthy of a win. But who will win and why? That below-average segue brings us to

2. PREDICTIONS THAT YOU CAN BET $$$ ON, FOOL

Best Picture-

Will Win: Oscar oracles and jaded journalists alike have spilled gallons of ink over the awards-show friendliness of The King's Speech; it's a period picture, an overcoming-your-disease drama, an acting showcase, a tearjerker, and so on. But the offscreen stats are just as telling; we've got two hugely underrated leads just now getting their dues, an up-and-coming director who's sure to be a major player in years to come, and a legendary producer who's been longing for a new addition to his bulging trophy bag for quite some time. A victory for any other film would be quite the upset.

Should Win: The King's Speech is a very good film, but I don't think it's a great one. Inception and The Social Network were both generational milestones, and are both currently victims of a flash-in-the-pan backlash that's as upsetting as it is expected. I'm happy enough for Bertie, Lionel and Co, but if the dream-thieves or Harvard kids got some love, I'd be ecstatic.

Best Director

Will/Should Win: David Fincher's had it coming for a while now, and a statuette would cement his status as a distinctive Hollywood legend. Also, the Academy is nothing if not PC, and they'll give this big award to "SocNet", the year's hippest picture, to satisfy the young'uns. To quote past Best Director winner Slumdog Millionaire, "It is written".

Best Actor

Will/Should Win: If you ask me, Jesse Eisenberg gave the male performance of the year. But The King's Speech was a monumental step forward for Colin Firth, and an Oscar would encourage him to take more great risks on screen. Plus, potential Great Academy Moments are a huge voter draw, and we all know Firth gives good speech.

Best Actress

Will: GAAAAAAH don't get me started; Annette Bening is a great actress, who gave one of the strongest female performances of the 90's in American Beauty, an singlehandedly made Being Julia worth watching. Her work in The Kids Are All Right is proof that she can and will successfully weather the transition for foxy lady to lionness in winter, but it's not anywhere near her best work. The Academy feels guilty for passing over her when the Globes have showered her with love for years, so I think's she's a pretty sure thing, in spite of that Queen Amidala girl in the tutu.

Should: Rarely has a film rested so squarely on the shoulders of one performer as Winter's Bone. As a teenager tending to her mother and siblings and battling the elements on the outskirts of the Ozarks, Jennifer Lawrence exudes a fearless, galvanizing energy that you can't make or fake. This is a clarion call announcing a new star, and, in a perfect world, Oscar would listen.

Best Supporting Actor

Will/Should Win: Christian Bale's work in The Fighter is nothing less than phenomenal. Oscar can't ignore it. They won't.

Best Supporting Actress

Will/Should: Everyone's banking on Hailee Steinfeld, the budding starlet from True Grit. But Melissa Leo's long overdue, and she does fantastic work in a role that just screams "give me gold!" Maybe my personal obsession with the actress is hazing my judgment a bit, but despite her decidedly unconventional campaign (remember, Bogey beat his drum pretty loudly too), she'd probably do will to jot down a few names to rattle off at the winner's podium.

For my predictions in the rest of the categories, click here...

And, finally...

3. WHAT DO I THINK OF THESE MOVIES?

Inception: A flat-out tour de force that blends genres and burst barriers with grace and grit to spare. It will be remembered as Nolan's finest achievement. Good thing he was nomi...wait. A.

The Kids Are All Right: A Lifetime movie that amps up the topicality, upgrades the cast, and ratchets up the soundtrack budget. It's impeccably acted and nicely shot, but Lisa Cholondenko's much-praised script is overwrought and undercooked all at once. It's a movie that claims to celebrate tolerance, but hammers home the queasy, reductive message that Lesbian marriages are not perfect, either! C.

Winter's Bone: Authentic to a fault, though you wish said authenticity had served a slightly less hackneyed story. Still, the non-pro cast amazes, and the location photography shimmers. Here's a film that finds spare-poetry in the done-to-death stereotypes of small town America. B+

The King's Speech: This is a veritable actor's workshop, with a small army of Britain's best firing on all cylinders. It never bludgeons you over the head with its sentimentality, but instead produces a small yet steady trickle of small, honest emotion. And if it sometimes feels like the best HBO movie never made, well, there are worse things a movie could be. A-.

Black Swan: Cold, lurid, and more than a little silly, Black Swan spends its first half attention to hide its horror-movie roots behind a shoddily constructed veil of forced symbolism and "pacing" (read: "stuffing"). However, once the movie gives into its oversexed, knife-wielding dark side, it soars, with the never-better Portman at the helm. It's pulp with a pulse. B+.

Toy Story 3: Mas.ter.piece. A.

127 Hours: At once one of the most intimate and expansive dramas of recent years. James Franco uncorks reserves of despairing mania and hushed tenderness that we never saw in Harry Osborne or Daniel Desario, and Danny Boyle is at the peak of his freewheeling technique. A once-in-a-lifetime collaboration. A-.

The Fighter: An embarrassment of riches, with Mark Wahlberg, Christian Bale, and Melissa Leo giving career performances, Amy Adams proving herself as a serious actress, and director David O. Russell doing some of his subtlest and strongest behind-the-camera work. It's a Shakespearean family drama where the verbal altercations cut just as deep as the physical fight. It has a certain bravery, a "true grit" that was missing from.... (A.)

True Grit: A beautiful mess. Gorgeous photography, and nom-worthy work from Steinfeld and Jeff Bridges, but the Coens dirty the water with a shockingly diffuse tone. Half the tone, you can't tell if they're thumbing their noses at the classic western, tipping their hats, or just sticking their tongues out and saying "hell with it"! B-.

The Social Network: The sharpest script in years+ a cornucopia of soon-to-be-stars=an event to remember. Yes, "SocNet" was a full on occasion upon its release, but time has proved that it holds up spectacularly as a piece of film making. The more I think about it, the more I likes it. A.