Before we dive into my 3rd Annual Oscar Predictions You Can Bet $$$ On Piece (my 7th, if you count the ones I scribbled on Post-It's for my parents), I must warn you; my crystal ball's getting a little hazy. Yes, my foresight is still accurate a good 75% of the time, but I'm also the guy who claimed that Avatar would win Best Picture and insisted Annette Bening would take home last year's Best Actress prize. But here's the thing; I don't think it's entirely my fault. The Academy, you see, is having an identity crisis. More than any other awards show, the Oscars are constantly in the midst of an ideological tug-of-war, being pulled every which way but loose by any number of fiercely devoted movie-lover sects; the old white males itching for a nostalgia trip, the crusading critics demanding the Academy throw a bone to the indie scene, the zeitgeisty teens expecting their favorite franchise to take home an award or two. Oscar is doing his best to please each of these demanding mistresses, but, as my dog knows, trying to mark every territory is an exercise in futility. As such, each year's show veers so far from the prior one that it's enough to give you whiplash. One year we have five Best Picture nominees, the next year ten. There's Chris Rock slamming Dubya---oh look, there's Alec Baldwin having a laugh at Billy Crystal. Hey, what if we go all edgy and give the award to a fledgling Iraq war drama? But next year, let's swallow the easiest Oscar bait, because we're, you know, old-fashioned like that. In this bipolar cultural climate, predicting the winners becomes as easy as selecting a Republican presidential nominee. Oh, and the toxic cherry on top is this--tell me if I'm wrong, but I think we've all come to realize just how silly this whole Oscar business really is. How can you compare Saving Private Ryan and Shakespeare In Love? What makes No Country for Old Men any better than Juno? Former host Jon Stewart said it best: "At some level, deep in our hearts, we think it's stupid."
So why watch? I'd say there are two good reasons. Firstly, let's face it--while there's no such thing as an objective "best", there are some cinematic contributions that most of us agree are hugely superior to a lot of what we see on screen. Brando's performance in On The Waterfront, John Williams' score for Star Wars--work like this raises the bar for cinema in general, and seeing those who did the raising recognized for their work can elicit an ecstatic surge of gratification. But what about the years when such Must Wins are absent--a la this year? Well, regardless of who takes home a trophy, the Oscars, when done right, are the best ticket in town. A great Oscar broadcast (think 1999) offers enough laughs, tears, drama, and grandeur to fill any silver screen production. It has more stars than any movie since Around the World in 80 Days. It has fashion. It has music. It even has a sort of implicit plot (this actor's been waiting his whole life for an Oscar...is tonight his night?) So, at this crucial moment in Oscar history, perhaps the Academy should stop going demographic-fishing and simply sell the ceremony for what it is--a Show with a capital S. With Billy Crystal as this year's host, it should be a good one. Along with Johnny Carson and Bob Hope, Crystal's one of the Great Oscar Vets, someone could host this thing with his eyes shut and his limbs tied to a chair. He won't bring anything new to the proceedings, but what he does, he'll do pretty well. With Crystal hosting and "the collective joy of going to the movies" as the theme, expect an overwhelmingly traditional show that, like this year's nominees, is heavy on the nostalgia. If we're lucky, it'll ascend to the height's of 2009's Hugh Jackman extravaganza, easily the best Oscar show of the previous decade. Even if we aren't, it can't possibly be worse than last year's James Franco debacle. My advice for the coming years? Pick a host that bridges the gap between old-timey classiness and New Millenium moxy--George Clooney, perhaps? Or, hey, in my dream world, Zooey Deschanel? Joseph-Gordon Lev...hey, 500 Days of Oscar, anyone?
PREDICTIONS YOU CAN (CAUTIOUSLY) BET $$$ ON:
Best Picture:
Will Win: Just look at the nominees--a romp through film history, a war epic, a race-based period drama--and you'll see that this year's Oscars is one giant flashback. Therefore, the movie that pays the most homage takes home the Big Prize, and that's unquestionably The Artist, Michel Hazanavicius's so-old-it's-brand-spanking-new paean to the pre-talkie years.
Should Win: This is not a year where I'm up in arms about any of the nominees. None of them were awful. The presumed winner is pretty damn good. Still, I'd be a little sick to my stomach if a cliche repository like The Descendants went home with the gold, and I'd get a kick out of a Tree of Life win, more as an Industry Thank You to Terence Malick than anything else.
Best Actor
Will Win: I'm hedging my bets on this one big time. George Clooney and Jean Dujardin are in a dead heat, and I doubt that anyone short of a divination specialist can really predict the winner. Still, I'd say the outpouring of Artist love will lend everyone's new favorite Frenchman a hand.
Should Win: Brad Pitt's work in Moneyball wasn't just the performance of his career--it was the most complete and unaffected performance by a Major Star since Charlize Theron in Monster. It redeemed the picture's weak parts, and sent the good stuff into the stratosphere. If the Clooney-Dujardin fight becomes too divisive, he might just sneak a win. Split those votes, folks!
Best Actress
Will and Should Win: Viola Davis--This woman is not just our greatest black actress, but also one of the most consistently underrated female thespians of the past decade. After her quietly wrenching work in The Help, Hollywood's finally done underestimating her--and so is Oscar.
Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win and Should Win: Christopher Plummer--Chance to reward long-respected industry standby?-check. Opportunity to acknowledge the year's indie darling--check. Possibility of setting a record (oldest Oscar winner)?--check. It's Plummer's night, and nothing short of a shift in the space-time continuum is going to change that.
Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win: Miss Minnie is one helluva character, and Octavia Spencer will mostly likely be recognized for sheperding her faithfully to the screen. However, I don't think her win is as sure as the teeming masses believe. If you want to bet against the system, consider the possibility that a combination of guilt (we shut that movie out of Best Picture?!) and generosity (we need to award it somehow) will win Bridesmaids' Melissa McCarthy just enough votes to get her out of her seat and on to the winner's stage.
Should Win: While the Hallelujah Chorus that erupted over the Davis-Spencer duo was well-deserved, it drowned out one of the best parts of The Help--Jessica Chastain, whose refusal to play Celia Foote for cheap irony or one-dimensional sympathy added a few extra layers to an already-fascinating character.
Best Director:
Will Win and Should Win: Everyone says that Hazanavicius will clench a victory as part of an Artist sweep, but I've got to play the devil's advocate here. After all, Hugo has the weight of the NBR and Golden Globes behind it, it's a critical darling, and even after his long-delayed 2006 win, many (including myself) claim that Oscar still gives Martin Scorsese the cold shoulder too often. My brain tells me to go with the flow, but my gut tells me that a potent combination of insecurity and adoration will put Marty just a hare ahead of the competition.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: The Descendants, conforming to the Academy's classic "reward-the-script-to-reward-the-whole-movie" law. Too bad the screenplay is the weakest facet of the whole film.
Should Win: Turning a play into a good film isn't easy, but The Ides of March screenwriters did just that, shaking off the inherent staginess of the piece without deep-sixing its cathartic power. This is the George Clooney movie that should be at the head of the pack.
Best Original Screenplay
Will and Should Win: Woody Allen is one of our five or six greatest screenwriters of all time. Midnight In Paris is his best work since his late-70's-early-80's Golden Age. The question isn't if he'll win, if it's he'll show up to accept.
Your Pocket Guide to the Nominees
The Tree of Life--A deeply deliberate meditation on Everything That Matters, this philosophical cine-treatise is occasionally impenetrable, but more often than not, it's great, a fearless gaze into the heavens that does Kubrick one better by tying it's spacey stargazing to appreciably complex characters. A.
Hugo--Giddy and charming without skimping on Scorsesean complexity, this children's book adaptation simultaneously chronicles and celebrates the history of the cinema while immersing us in the most fully imagined universe in the history of 3-D. A.
The Artist--Sizable chunks of the picture are lugubrious and repetitive as all get out (how many times do we need to play Sit and Watch George Mope?), but when this radiantly acted and cleverly executed movie is focused, it pulses with a simplicity and sincerity that feel like a drink of water in the desert. B+.
War Horse--Assembled with masterful technique and alive with honest sentiment this is a full-on Spielberg movie, and even if it's not the director's best, it's a fitting return to form for the guy who's spent the past few years producing the Transformers movies. A-.
Extremely Loud--I haven't seen it, but let me take this opportunity to say; Read. The. Damn. Book.
Midnight In Paris--Perfect? No. Brilliant? Yes. More details? See my nine hundred previous writings on the picture. A.
Moneyball--It tells a pretty good story pretty well, but Moneyball is most notable as a cultural moment. It signifies Aaron Sorkin's ascension to the role of modern movie poet laureate, Bennett Miller's return to the director's stage, and, at last, Brad Pitt's ultimate assertion of his endless versatility and commitment. A-.
The Descendants--A smart, gratifyingly mature film that holds your attention even as the script falls into trough after stereotypical trough. Clooney's typically flawless work makes it watchable, relatable, and enjoyable, but it's never lovable. B-.
The Help--First-time director Tate Taylor can't quite marshal all the storylines to a satisfactory conclusion, and you never really feel the grit, sweat, and suffering of 60's era Mississippi in your bones. But a solid screenplay and a who's who of great female actresses go a long way towards helping this adaptation overcome its weaknesses. B+
